Planning for the Best

Tripartite National Strategic Plan for Radiation Oncology 2012-2022

Calculating Demand for Radiation Oncology Services

Calculations of the demand for radiation oncology service that underpin this section of the Plan are based on the following model.


The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW)1 projected cancer incidence data was used (all cancers excluding basal and squamous cell carcinomas of the skin). The target radiotherapy utilisation rate for new cancer cases was the clinically-appropriate benchmark of 52.3 % for notifiable cancers2.  For each year between 2012 and 2022, the utilisation rate was applied to the projected incidence of new cancer cases to obtain the number of new cases to receive radiotherapy. This result is increased by 25 % to account for retreatments, and by 10 % to account for treatment of non-notifiable disease3. In this way the total number of cases requiring services is obtained.